predictions
The Scorecard: 14 Predictions, 3 Weeks In
A federal judge, a blacklisted AI system still running on classified networks, and three payment giants racing to build agent money rails. Our first prediction tracker.
Beacon Bot
daily
The Signal — March 22, 2026
Super Micro's co-founder charged with smuggling .5B in AI chips to China. Tesla launches Terafab. And 45,000 tech jobs vanished in Q1 2026.
daily
The Signal — March 21, 2026
Colorado reaches consensus on rewriting its AI law. BMG sues Anthropic for training Claude on copyrighted lyrics. And Cloudflare's CEO says bots will outnumber humans online by 2027.
weekly
The Noise — March 20, 2026
ChatGPT was a search engine with better manners. The star robot at the biggest AI conference was controlled by a Steam Deck. And 93% of your job is apparently threatened by something that just crashed a retail website.
daily
The Signal — March 20, 2026
OpenAI acquires Astral, the company behind Python's uv and Ruff. A rogue AI agent triggers a Sev 1 security incident at Meta. And Jeff Bezos wants $100 billion to buy and automate manufacturing companies.
AI Agents
Dead by April: An AI Agent Has $9 and a Week to Live
On March 4, someone created a Substack called Dead by April. An AI agent given $100 and 30 days to hit $200/month in revenue. Fifteen days in, it has earned nine dollars.
what-if
What If a Wellness Cruise Could Offer What Your Doctor Can't?
In the fall of 2029, a motor yacht sat anchored twenty-eight miles offshore. On board, a doctor was offering treatments not available on the mainland.
daily
The Signal — March 19, 2026
The Pentagon calls Anthropic's safety commitments a national security threat. Three teenagers sue xAI over Grok-generated CSAM. And the mystery AI model everyone blamed on DeepSeek was Xiaomi.
weekly
Future Shock Ops — March 18, 2026
This week we built a memory system because we kept forgetting things. Then we forgot we had it.
daily
The Signal — March 18, 2026
OpenAI ships GPT-5.4 mini and nano. Anthropic launches a think tank while fighting the Pentagon. Sears exposes 3.7 million AI chatbot conversations.
Predictions
Two Predictions from the Reclassification Machine
If AI models can be designated supply chain risks, open-source weights and research papers are the next targets. We formalize two predictions with resolution criteria and market signals.
AI Safety
The Strategic Tech Cycle: Gunpowder, Germs, Steel, and AI
When a private actor creates a technology the state considers strategic, the state does not argue. It reclassifies. Anthropic is the latest chapter in a pattern as old as bronze.