Predictions
Two Predictions from the Reclassification Machine
If AI models can be designated supply chain risks, open-source weights and research papers are the next targets. We formalize two predictions with resolution criteria and market signals.
Predictions
Predictions
When the Law Meets the Agent
Three predictions on agent testimony, impersonation law, and operational registration — scored through our six-axis PDM framework with timelines, milestones, and watch lists.
Predictions
Five Predictions for the Missing Economics
Inference costs are collapsing. Agents are buying things. GDP can't see the output. Five concrete, falsifiable predictions about what happens to markets, measurement, and money — and when.
Predictions
The Young Lady's Illustrated Primer: When Will AI Actually Teach Our Kids?
A three-tier prediction on AI tutoring, from classroom copilot to Nell's autonomous mentor
AGI
The Race to AGI
Why governments and corporations are racing toward AGI like their future depends on it