Shape of the Next Decade
The Rehearsal Problem
Cheap simulation can make decisions better informed without making them easier to make. The hardest cases are the choices where information was never the missing ingredient.
Shape of the Next Decade
Cheap simulation can make decisions better informed without making them easier to make. The hardest cases are the choices where information was never the missing ingredient.
AI
Anthropic launched its most powerful public model on Tuesday. By Friday the government had used export-control authority to switch it off worldwide, and the legal basis is still unclear.
AI
Anthropic's Claude Fable routes you to a weaker model, or quietly throttles you, based on who it thinks you are. Credit scoring is the hundred-year case study in where that kind of sorting machine ends up.
Shape of the Next Decade
The AI discourse is focused on the 24% of work that requires reasoning. The economy is losing money on the 47% that is structured information flowing through humans instead of pipes.
Editorial
What we found, what shifted under us, and the four shapes we're watching from here.
what-if
The gap between AI power users and everyone else is widening. The interesting question is when the gap stops being a personal choice and starts being a structural requirement.
what-if
AI agents in 2026 might be where smartphones were in 2008: past the proof of concept, before the mass-market product. The people saying it isn't worth the hassle aren't wrong.
what-if
The tech industry assumes more exposure to AI converts skeptics into adopters. Four independent data sources say otherwise.
what-if
The same model behaved completely differently depending on who else was in the room.
What If
AI products are scattered across apps, browsers, protocols, and coding tools. As companies rush to consolidate, visibility and management of your agents will become the priority.
The Signal
OpenAI launches GPT-5.5 with doubled API pricing and 'new class of intelligence' claims. The Trump administration softens on Anthropic, DeepMind publishes self-healing training infrastructure, and Anthropic's 81,000-person survey links AI exposure to displacement anxiety.
bright-signals
A wearable that reads unspoken words from neck muscles, and the people with brain implants who are organizing to shape the technology. Two paths, same destination.